After all, in his speech at the Workers’ Party of Korea’s plenary meeting ahead of the new year, Kim stressed that the country needs to band together in an “offensive for frontal breakthrough” to “foil the enemies’ sanctions and blockade” and “fully meet the demand needed for … economic development” and the people’s livelihood, according to a summary of his speech published in state-run media. But the visit suggests the importance he places on food production, particularly while the pandemic disrupts the country’s supply chain and flow of foreign currency from China. Kim’s reasons for choosing the Sunchon fertilizer plant’s ribbon-cutting ceremony as his occasion to reappear are unknown.
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Along with the regime’s persistent military ambitions, Kim’s need to show domestic strength in the face of a coronavirus outbreak may explain the series of missile tests in March and April.
Indeed, the pandemic may be doing more than international sanctions to arrest economic activity across North Korea’s borders. The coronavirus pandemic further complicates matters because North Korea’s self-imposed national quarantine has nearly halted trade with China, upon which the country is extremely dependent. To address these, he could do more to evade sanctions, strengthen his country’s self-reliance, or both. Kim appears focused on domestic affairs in light of North Korea’s economic challenges. But as we recommended in Foreign Policy during Kim’s absence, Washington and Seoul will be better off preparing for a coordinated response irrespective of Pyongyang’s next move. North Korea’s choices will be driven primarily by domestic politics and adjusted when the regime perceives changing international threats and opportunities. In terms of diplomacy, Pyongyang could continue to reject engagement, or it could pursue tactical cooperation for short-term gain. The military might make a few external provocations while quietly improving its capabilities, or it might push the envelope with further escalation.
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The Kim regime may focus on modernizing state institutions, or it may crack down on social trends and commerce that do not comport with the ruling party’s ideology and control of the economy. Kim’s continued power does not equate to a static situation in North Korea. Kim is apparently “ alive and well.” But it would be a mistake to lose focus on North Korea, because potential instability still exists there, from domestic shocks to new military provocations. After nearly three weeks of international speculation about his health, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un returned to public view at a ribbon-cutting ceremony for a new factory on May 1.
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